Chemical Fiber 2024: The winter of domestic carbon fiber has passed ​

The domestic carbon fiber industry has experienced a long cold winter, but in the past three years since the outbreak of the global new crown epidemic, it has ushered in spring unexpectedly.

In 2022, under the background of sluggish demand in the textile downstream market, severe overall chemical fiber market conditions, prices running at low levels throughout the year, an obvious lack of industry operating rates, and heavy pressure on corporate profits, domestic carbon fiber continues to perform a unique "drama."

Although some carbon fiber companies briefly suspended production in the first half of the year, and poor logistics in many places also intermittently affected the shipments of many companies, the price of large tows this year has declined to a certain extent based on the high level last year. However, in the face of the hot market , these small twists and turns seem not worth mentioning.

This year, the production lines were basically running at full capacity, product production and sales were booming and even supply exceeded demand, companies generally made "a lot of money", and multiple new projects were racing against time to meet the deadline...

This is the "main theme" of the domestic carbon fiber industry.

Stable supply of small tows to major areas

Aerospace has always been the dominant application area of carbon fiber, and the products used are small tows. Directed supply orders to major customers in the aerospace field are the "ballast stone" and "stabilizer" that enable my country's carbon fiber industry to maintain stable operation every year.

Weihai Guangwei Composite Materials Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Guangwei Composite Materials") is my country's main supplier of carbon fiber for national defense and military industry. At the end of last year, Guangwei Composite Materials signed a 10-quarter shaped fiber sales contract totaling 2.098 billion yuan, with the contract period from January 2022 to the end of June 2024. Wang Yingchao, Secretary of the Board of Directors of Guangwei Composite Materials, said that sales contracts for shaped fibers have always been one of the company's main sources of income. The company began executing the contract this year, and the contract execution rate in the first three quarters totaled 32.25%.

In the first three quarters of this year, Guangwei Composite Materials achieved operating income of approximately 1.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was approximately 750 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.36%.

"During the year, the new crown epidemic caused the company's five business segments to suspend production for more than half a month; the company's shipments to Beijing and Shanghai were affected, which affected the company's revenue and profits to a certain extent." Wang Yingchao said.

In the past two years, the price of styling fiber products in the aviation application market has dropped. Li Taoyang, chief analyst of the military industry and new materials sector of CITIC Securities Co., Ltd., said that the carbon fiber materials used in Guangwei composite materials and main model equipment will see their first price reduction in 2021 since they were mass-produced. In the two-and-a-half-year contract, the price of the product was reduced again. "As many types of equipment products in our country enter the mass production stage, price reductions for batch-produced supporting materials are a trend."

"In addition to ensuring the supply of shaped fibers, the application space of the company's series of high-performance fibers continues to expand, and the business scale continues to expand. Since last year, T800H grade, M40J/M55J grade, T700S/T800S grade and other carbon fiber products have become the company's new additions The main source of profits." Wang Yingchao further introduced, "This year, a high-performance carbon fiber of the company also passed the installation review, allowing the company to add a new type of fiber to support an important machine on the basis of the existing traditional stereotyped fiber for batch delivery applications. The supply of shaped fibers for type aviation equipment will gradually increase in the future. The company has become a supplier of a full range of carbon fibers for my country`s existing important aviation equipment."

"The continuous diversification of products and businesses, as well as the continuous high investment in R&D and the cultivation and development of business, are the solid foundation for the steady development of the company's performance." Wang Yingchao said.

Zhongjian Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zhongjian Technology") is a batch and stable supplier of ZT7 series carbon fiber products in my country's aerospace field. In March this year, Zhongjian Technology signed a major sales contract with a contract amount of 2.169 billion yuan and a contract execution period from 2022 to 2023. At the same time, at the beginning of this year, the production capacity of its 1,000-ton production line was officially released.

The surge in order amounts and the release of new production line capacity have caused Zhongjian Technology's carbon fiber sales to increase significantly this year. In the first three quarters, the company's revenue was 519 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.8%; the attributable net profit was 320 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.84%. "The company's carbon fiber has been closely following the volume increase cycle of key models, which has been clearly reflected this year." said Li Jianfeng, Secretary of the Board of Directors of Zhongjian Technology.

Regarding the current overall application of domestic carbon fiber in the aerospace field, Wang Wenyi, general manager of Guangwei Composite Materials, pointed out: "Domestic carbon fiber is currently mainly used in wind turbine blades and sports and leisure fields, and the combined usage in the two fields accounts for about 70% of the total annual usage. ; The usage proportion in the aerospace field is only 3%. In comparison, the application proportion of carbon fiber in the aerospace field in developed countries is much higher. Next, the application space of domestic carbon fiber in the aerospace field is still huge. Therefore , everyone must work together to further expand the 'cake' of these two markets, and Guangwei will continue to firmly seize these two key high-end application markets."

The high-end civilian market for small tows is in short supply

This year, high-end small tow carbon fibers such as T700 and T800 are in short supply in the civilian field.

"There is a prominent phenomenon in the carbon fiber industry this year. There are many new companies entering and new production capacity. Everyone will worry that when these new production capacities are put into production one after another, will the total production capacity increase again? In fact, the specific situation needs to be analyzed in detail." An industry insider who did not want to be named said, "From a product perspective, the competitive pressure on T700 and above products this year is relatively low, because the technical threshold of such products is relatively high and it is difficult to achieve simple and rapid replication. And the newly invested projects The main purpose is to expand the production capacity of large tows, and the production capacity can be copied quickly and on a large scale. In terms of price, the prices of high-performance carbon fibers such as T700 and T800 are relatively stable this year, basically in the range of 220 yuan/kg to 240 yuan/kg. ."

The products of Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zhongfu Shenying") are currently mainly T700 and T800 grades. This year, the production capacity of Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber Xining Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the "Xining Project") has been steadily released, and the scale effect has accelerated, driving a substantial increase in the overall production and sales of its products. In the first three quarters, Zhongfu Shenying achieved operating income of 1.452 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 106.12%; attributable net profit was 424 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.09%.

In the past few years, especially before the Xining project was put into operation, Zhongfu Shenying`s carbon fiber was in serious short supply. "A friend once called me and said that someone asked him for help to buy a few tons of carbon fiber, but there was nothing we could do. The company did not have the goods." Jin Liang, secretary of the board of directors of Zhongfu Shenying, said, "Since the Xining project was put into operation, the company's carbon fiber supply The tense situation has been alleviated to a certain extent. Even so, the company's carbon fiber as a whole this year is still in a state of being produced and sold."

The annual carbon fiber production capacity of Zhongfu Shenying's Lianyungang base is approximately 3,500 tons, and has been at full production and sales this year; the Xining project's first-phase high-performance carbon fiber annual production capacity is 10,000 tons, and is basically at full production this year. "Since the Xining project was put into operation last year, part of the production line has produced 12K products and another part of the production line has produced 24K products. As of the end of November this year, it has produced and supplied more than 8,000 tons of carbon fiber." Jin Liang introduced.

Due to the COVID-19 epidemic, Lianyungang implemented temporary static management for a period of time this year. For more than ten days, the entire Zhongfu Shenying factory implemented closed management and closed-loop production. At the same time, from September to November, Xining`s logistics was also affected to some extent. "Although trucks can enter and exit normally, there is a relative lag. In response, some appropriate adjustments have been made to the raw material stocking and finished product inventory of the Xining project. Under normal circumstances, the company's raw material inventory is 30 days to 40 days, but adjustments will be made in the second half of the year It`s more than 60 days," Jin Liang said.

In terms of price, the price of Zhongfu Shenying series carbon fiber is stable this year. Jin Liang said: "The company has established a customer management system. When facing different types of customers, the actual supply prices will have some subtle differences. For example, strategic customers with long cooperation time and large purchase quantities will have a slight advantage in price. But Regardless of the type of customer, our product prices are relatively stable, and each model of product has a minimum shipping price set by the internal management system."

It is worth noting that Zhongfu Shenying`s diversified and personalized small tow products are also in short supply this year.

Jin Liang introduced that this year the company has made some adjustments to the production capacity of the Lianyungang base. Based on downstream demand, the company converted a production line that originally produced 12K products into products that produce smaller tows. Due to different tows, the overall output of this line has dropped a lot after the switch, but the gross profit margin of the product is much higher, making a greater contribution to profits. "Actually, the company already had two small lines producing products with smaller tows last year. We found that the actual market demand was greater than the production capacity at that time, and the supply of products exceeded demand, so we decided to switch to one production line this year. Throughout this year, products with smaller tows The output is expected to double compared to last year, and these products are mainly used downstream to produce some functional products, such as electronic products, automotive interiors, etc."

Jin Liang further explained: [When the Xining project is not put into production, the company`s Lianyungang base must ensure that it meets the strategic and forward-looking production needs. The core idea is to protect the market and supply. Some small batch and diversified needs will be difficult to meet. After the Xining project was put into operation, this situation changed. Since the Xining project was put into operation, it has always produced several core varieties in accordance with the idea of large-scale and mass production, such as 12K and 24K T700 and T800 products. On this basis, the company this year Develop ideas at the Lianyungang base and focus more on small tow, multi-variety, and high-margin carbon fiber products. Among them, there are many types of products with smaller tows; more products with higher performance have also been produced. For example, M series. Now, no matter what kind of small tow products are needed by downstream customers, we can produce them. At present, carbon fiber can be applied to aerospace, pressure vessels, carbon/carbon composites, sports and leisure, transportation construction, wind power and other fields. Our products basically cover all fields."

Guangwei Composite Materials` high-performance products such as T700S and T800S are also in short supply this year. Their civil applications include pressure vessels, building reinforcements, gas cylinders, photovoltaic thermal power plants, etc. The reporter learned that the products of Guangwei Composite Baotou Project have been adjusted this year according to market conditions. After the first phase of the project is put into production, it will mainly produce 12K and 24K T700S, T800S and T1000.

Wang Wenyi said: "The products we supply in these fields have always been in short supply. According to current customer intentions, even including the 4,000 tons of production capacity after the first phase of the Baotou project is put into operation, it is still not enough."

Large tow production and sales are booming but cooling down

"Looking back on last year, domestically produced large tow carbon fiber was 'hard to find'. Even customers with large purchases or strategic cooperation often couldn't get the goods from manufacturers, and the manufacturer's quotation was always rising. Due to the actual purchase The price has increased a lot compared to the agreed price, and the raw material costs of some companies have increased a lot last year." An industry insider said with emotion.

This year, the large-tow carbon fiber market is still in a state of booming production and sales, and manufacturing companies are still making "a lot of money."

Jilin Carbon Valley Carbon Fiber Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Jilin Carbon Valley") achieved operating income of 1.519 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 110.01%; attributable net profit was 484 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170.1%. Last year, its main business revenue was 1.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104.14%; the attributable net profit was 315 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.09%. In 2020, its net profit is still in the red, with a loss of 30.0477 million yuan.

Jilin Carbon Valley said that this year the company's products have expanded applications in the industrial and civilian markets, and sales of raw silk have increased. As the new large tow products are gradually finalized, the quality of new and old products continues to improve, the company's main products are booming in production and sales, and the average sales price has increased year-on-year, supporting the growth of net profit.

The core driving force for this booming market of both production and sales still comes from the demand support of the wind turbine blade market. The current application fields of large tow carbon fibers such as 24K, 25K, and 48K are mainly wind power carbon beams.

Aosheng Composite Materials Technology Co., Ltd., located in Suzhou, Jiangsu, specializes in carbon fiber wind power pultruded panels and is a "big player" in carbon fiber applications. Xu Wenqian, general manager of Aosheng Technology, told reporters that the company's carbon fiber usage in 2021 will be more than 10,000 tons, and this year's usage will be approximately 12,000 tons.

However, it is worth noting that the large tow market has cooled down this year under the general market situation where production and sales are still booming.

From the perspective of supply and demand, represented by Jilin Chemical Fiber Group, a batch of new domestic production capacities have been rapidly released, and market supply has increased significantly, which has greatly alleviated the serious shortage of supply last year. Data from Jilin Chemical Fiber Group shows that from the beginning of this year to mid-December, the group has newly put into production 4 raw yarn lines and 6 carbonization lines. By the beginning of next year, it is expected that 2 more raw yarn lines and 2 carbonization lines will be completed and put into operation. This will bring its annual production capacity of raw silk to 160,000 tons and carbon filament to 49,000 tons.

"This year, domestic large tow production capacity has expanded rapidly, and the domestic market supply is still sufficient." Xu Wenqian said.

Due to changes in supply and demand, the price of large tows showed a downward trend from the beginning of the year to the end of the year. As of mid-November this year, the average price of large-tow carbon fiber in my country was 129 yuan/kg, down about 12% from the beginning of the year.

"In the last two months of the year, the price of large tows dropped to the range of 105 yuan/kg to 115 yuan/kg; in mid-December, the quotation of large tows even dropped to 100 yuan/kg." An industry insider said.

It is also worth noting that on the one hand, my country's large tow production capacity is rapidly expanding, and on the other hand, downstream users still partially use imported products. Moreover, the price of imported large tow products has also declined this year.

"In the company's total carbon fiber usage this year, domestic and imported products account for about half each. We mainly import 48K and 50K products. The price of imported large tows is similar to that of domestic products." Xu Wenqian said, "We do this to diversify Raw material procurement risks."

In addition, because the overall price of carbon fiber is still high, some downstream users use glass fiber as a substitute in order to reduce costs. This has also become a reason for the cooling of the large tow market.

"Considering the high price of carbon fiber, we used about 150,000 tons of glass fiber this year, and also used the pultrusion process to produce wind power girders. These wind power girders are mainly sold to domestic customers." Xu Wenqian said.

"Glass fiber is also occupying part of the market with its price advantage. Some composite material companies are developing the use of carbon fiber and glass fiber mixed thermosetting and thermoplastic pultrusion processes to produce wind power beams. Compared with carbon beams, the mixed process is more cost-effective It has certain advantages and will create certain competition in the carbon fiber market." said the above-mentioned industry insider.

"The situation of 'price competition' in my country's large-tow carbon fiber market may have begun." A senior practitioner in the carbon fiber industry told reporters.